Todd Roseberry’s Blog

“Opportunity shows up when an industry crashes”, was how Gene Rivers started his one day seminar in June called “SHIFT 2-overdrive.  He went on to say, “We are the people (Realtors) who will turn this market around, and the time is NOW!”   One powerful thing that Gary Keller said at family reunion that has stuck with me is, “This market will be the greatest professional opportunity in your lifetime….It’s the ‘gift of the Shift’.” Gene used the example of Chrysler…which was just purchased by Fiat……Wait, wait,….Fiat?  FIAT??!!!….I thought they only made scooters?!! Buying Chrysler was Fiat’s ‘opportunity of a lifetime’.  This market is yours:  Yours AND your clients.  So that’s what we are going to focus on in this article…OPPORTUNITY.  Where is it; what do you do; and what do you say:  This article is chock full ‘o ideas, “zingers”, tips and scripts. First off, a little GOOD NEWS!!

Facts

1. 5 Million homes will sell in the U.S. this year (NAR).  At our peak, 6.28 Million homes sold (2006) News alert: The sky did NOT actually fall!
2. Nationally almost 200k realtors left the industry in 08; In ATL we are down 30% in agent count.  The loss in sales exceeds the loss in transactions.  This means there are, and will continue to be, an increasing number of “available” transactions per agent!
3. Absorption (supply) is currently at 10.7 months and is the LOWEST it has been since May of 2007!! (broker metrics-all FMLS)

 Buyers:  Only 2 real issues: Finding them and Urgency.    Zinger-script! When a buyer says, I’m not ready to buy… “Mr/Mrs. Buyer, actually you are buying a home.  When you rent, you are buying a home…just not for yourself” Now for urgency.  Rate-Script!.  “Mr/Mrs. Buyer, are you buying to have a home or for an investment?  Well consider this, if you miss this rate, the $5-$10k you are trying to save to get a deal will be completely wiped out during your ownership.  And worse than that, the $100/month extra that you’ll be sending to the bank, could have gone back in to the house” Find them-TIP!-Create a flyer that says, “Live FREE your first year-Call me for details.  Must be closed by Dec 1^st” I did the math.  At the Median price for a home in Atlanta, according to the FMLS as of May 2009 ($145,000) with 5% down and 5% rate, your P&I payment is a little over $8,000 for the first year.  With the tax credit, your buyer will effectively have no payment.  And for most, the interest deduction should off set taxes. YOU HAVE 4 MONTHS LEFT. 100 year-Scipt!-“Mr/Mrs. Buyer, I am so excited for you!  The market you are buying in has literally NEVER happened before.  May I explain?  In the last 100 years, there have been a few buyer’s markets: The early 70’s; early 80’s; early 90’s.  The rates in those markets? 10-18%!!!  Guess what the rates were in 1909?  6%!  Only ONE time in history have prices dropped nationally and that was the great depression…a time when you could barely get a loan.  This opportunity comes every 100 years, and you’re in it!” 

Sellers:  Price is the only issue.  Once price corrects, supply adjust…Viola!…no more buyer’s market.  It’s that simple.  Zinger!-Look, if YOU (the agent) don’t get the price right, can you guess who will?….THE BANK.  Zinger-Script!- “There are two types of listings: Listings that sell, and listings that sell the houses that sell” TIP!- On presentations.  Make sure you have GRAPHS of market conditions.  Sellers need to SEE how bad the trends are or you’ll get no effect.  More importantly, if the bad news comes out of YOUR mouth, YOU become the “bad guy”. 

Be a short sale savior!  I get it, they stink: 5 times the work for the same money.  I get it, you signed up for a different game, a fun one, and this ain’t it.  But look, there are thousands of people out there that need your short sale assistance many of whom are in YOUR database.  If YOU don’t save them, who will?  FACT: On average, short sales will sell for 80% of the 1^st mortgage amount:  Foreclosures sell for 60%.  If you don’t’ save the values in your neighborhoods, who will?  TIP!-Go right now to KW Connect.  The first video interview on Agent Mountain is a short sale training series.

 Lead generation

1)      One simple solution….TALK TO MORE PEOPLE!!  Think of this.  Someone opens a shoe store in Lennox mall.  Store opens and all day, NO ONE comes in to talk about buying shoes.  Thousands of people walk by and NO ONE.  How does that shop owner feel that night while driving home? …Scared?…panic?…terrified?  Many Realtors can go weeks with out talking to anyone about real estate and don’t feel panic.  Zinger!-“Every day you don’t talk to someone about buying and selling, that is the first day of your GOING OUT OF BUSINESS SALE.”  Here is a TIP!-Simple Sales Goal Formula:  Talk to 10% of your annual sales goal every day. EX.  Want to sell 100 homes?  Talk to 10 people a day, 5 days per week. (10% of 100)

2)      Your Data base, is NOT a phone book.  TIP!-Every contact in your database should have TWO pieces of data (otherwise it’s just a phone book) 1- Notes on conversations held about REAL ESTATE  2- A scheduled next point of contact.  Here are 2 ideas for your database. TIP!-IDEA 1: Dream with your client.  If you remember from “FORD”, the “D” is Dreams.  Every person in your database should have these three “Dream” questions answered. 1-Have you ever thought about building your ultimate dream home?  2-Have you dreamed of a vacation home, beach/mountains etc…? 3- Ever dreamed of being a real estate investor?  SCRIPT!  “Mr/Mrs. Seller, my goal is not just to sell you a home, but to sell you many homes in order to get you to that dream.”  Zinger!-If YOU don’t have that vision for your clients, then you’re just a salesman. IDEA 2: Throw an annual ‘referral party’.  Anyone who has referred you (whether it yielded $$ or not), is worth MORE than anyone who has only used you. Key: is for you to cook for them yourself.  Using your own hands to cook and feed someone is an ingratiating, emotional event…it’s the ultimate act of caring for people.  You will get referrals that night.  Eat, drink,…make $30k!

3)      Focus  “We have met the enemy and he is us”-Pogo  You (solo agent) have a boss who is NOT keeping you accountable.  “You win or lose, DAILY” –G Rivers.  TIP!-Set up some form of daily accountability.   TIP!-Start your day ONE HOUR earlier.

I had a request for a ‘minute of mojo’ from Rebecca Jacobs, who recently joined our office…So, I thought I would share some inspirational quotes excerpted from my Family Reunion notes.  Family Reunion is Keller Williams’ annual convention, which is 5 straight days of training, panels, masterminds and professional ‘enlightenment’.
 
Now go get ‘moj-i-fied’!

This is an “ALL OR NOTHING YEAR”.  The “Last Man Standing” (agent OR company) at the end of this year, will HAVE IT ALL…AND WILL OWN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET for the next 5-10 years.  (Mike Bastian, my coach)

Shift is truly about choice…yours…and it will dictate how you get to the other side.  (Key note Charles Swindol)

To shift or be shifted…that is the question.  We are going to have an “L-shaped” economic recovery…either get real about this fact, or get out.  Also, we are being told this is the worst economic time since the depression.  Remember, unless you committed suicide, the depression didn’t actually kill anyone.  (Gary Keller)

The next 180 days may be the toughest economic times you will ever see.  Despite that fact, this is the biggest professional opportunity in your lifetime.  (Gary Keller)

Opportunity is never lost - it is simply taken by someone else. (Gary Keller)

The big story is never the economy - it’s the opportunities it creates for those who choose to embrace it.  (Gary Keller)

Optimists believe if something works well, it was them and it will last.  If something goes wrong, it’s the environment and won’t’ last.  Victims stay stuck because their problem is not about them, it’s about their environment.  They never own it.  “It’s the market, not me!”  (Dave Jenks)

In success, both your swing and the size of the field matters.  What was a home run is now a single.  The field has changed, time to change your swing.  (Gary Keller)

“If someone is going down the wrong road, he doesn’t need motivation to speed him up.  He needs education to turn him around.”  (Gary Keller)

You are not your thoughts.  Everyone has ‘bad’, ‘impure’, or ‘self doubting’ thoughts.  YOU get to decide which ones will drive your behavior.  Only your actions define who you are.

LET FEAR BE YOUR COMPASS!!!  Let fear be your guide, your ‘compass’ for which direction you should go.  WHY?  Fear means you care about the outcome.  You’re afraid it might not work.  If you didn’t care, you would have no fear. 

MONEY AND OPPORTUNITY LIE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF FEAR!

Character matters:  in times of great pressure, there is temptation to do wrong.  These times will reveal people’s true character.  No deal, no amount of money is worth your reputation.  There is never a right time to do the wrong thing. (Mo Anderson)

We don’t do things because we are taught to do them; we do them because we are reminded to do them.  “Sometimes the choir even needs a little sermon…”

TMD in 2009 (Total Market Domination)

First off, anytime you sense a possible ‘urban legend’ go to www.snopes.com first.  It’s a ‘myth busters’ type of site.  Snopes basically said ‘true’ granite causes radon, but most researches AND the FDA feel it’s a minimal risk.  Here is their article.

http://www.snopes.com/medical/toxins/granite.asp

The following write up is from a conversation that I had with a state radon official.  She is the head of radon education for GA.  My initial call was regarding the scare over granite counter tops causing radon.  Here is the information she gave me and some resources.

BOTTOM LINE: BUY A KIT (they are cheap) AND TEST YOUR HOME.

1 of 4 homes have radon in GA as tested and tracked by the test kits manufactured by radon.com ( 22 years of data)  Surgeon general has stated radon is a real problem, 2^nd highest cause of lung cancer after smoking.  All homes should to be tested.

Radon is NOT regulated in GA.  Anyone can do or say anything.

• It is an issue, get a test.
• Hire a certified professional
• Electronic test $100 (make sure machine has been calibrated)
• Do it yourself kits: typically test for short term periods; they DO give you an idea, BUT radon fluctuates.

Most of the tests available are activated charcoal: radon is alive and results must be sent to lab immediately.  Follow the test to the letter and it is an adequate safety measure.

Mitigation:  Vent system that sucks air from foundation to roof line.  Systems run 1,500 to 3,500, less than that you are getting ripped off.

People to call

Info and a free radon test: Ginger Bennett, Hall/Dawson Counties, bennettg@uga.edu, 770/5358290  734 E. Crescent Drive, Suite 300, Gainesville, GA 30501,  Fax: 770/5313994

General info on radon

www.epa.gov/radonDallas Gamble is on our preferred vendor list at the Intown office and is certified through the Natl environmental health assoc safety board.  www.homesafeinspection.com  770-804-0640

Written February 2009….(for real estate agents)

The real estate market has shifted drastically.  Sales are down dramatically.  Inventory has reached an all time high.  Buyers have never been more reluctant.  Fear is rampant, anxiety high, and people are getting out of the real estate business right and left.  Sound familiar?  If you are over 40 it should…the year was 1980.  (Over 30?  Let’s go with 1990…same thing.) What is it about prosperity that gives us all amnesia?!!!  My advice:  Relax, people.  It happened before and it most certainly will happen again.
 
Are times really that bad…hmmm, let’s take a quick flashback to 1980, shall we?

• Rates for a 30 year fixed mortgage…18%.
• The prime rate hit 19.5% (March of 1980).
• The Dow Jones threatened to blast through 1,000! Wahoo!
• Inflation was 13.3%!!!!
• Worst of all…Disco died.

Feel better about today?

• Mortgage rates are in the FOUR’s.
• Prime rate is in the THREE’s.
• 93% of the population that wants a job has one.
• Median household income is triple what it was then.

And on top of all that…we are expected to live about 10 years longer than we were 40 years ago!!!  In other words, YOU will be around to see another shift (or two).  The Bottom Line:  SHIFT HAPPENS! (Sorry, couldn’t resist that one )

What you need to do: (agents or anyone experiencing the ’shift’)
First off, stop calling it a bad market.  If you had $5,000,000 in cash to buy real estate right now…is it a bad market?  There is no bad market, only buyer and seller markets.  What is different is that we have NEVER seen this market before, and the good news is people are finally realizing that NOW is the best time to buy that we will see in our lifetime.  Allow me to qualify that last statement.  There have been two major buyer’s markets in recent times - 1980 and 1990 (roughly).  During those times, the interest rates were between 10% and 18%.  What we are seeing today has NEVER happened before….the lowest mortgage rates in history AND high inventory AT THE SAME TIME!!  And for sellers, money they lose on the sale, they will likely make up on the buy.

Fear to faith:  Know that the market doesn’t matter for you anyway, only what percent of the market you get. To thrive now you must first go from fear to faith.  That means believe that you WILL be OK.  You will get through this.  Gary Keller recently said, “It doesn’t matter if you lose everything (which BTW has happened to him), our research shows you can be in a massively different place in 5 years from today…Even in a worst case scenario, it only takes 5 years to ‘reset’…”

Re-cast and simplify:
If you are not getting results, it is time to re-cast your line and fish in a different spot, in a different way, with different bait…It’s time to re-train yourself.  Re-cast your goal with what is possible right now.  Then try to simplify that goal to a few numbers.  Let me briefly run you through what I am talking about.
1) First find your GAP.  If you got real, real lean, how much money do you need per month to break even or hit your goal?   Two things will happen in this exercise: a) you will develop a personal budget; and b) you will be shocked when you annualize your expenditures (Starbucks; restaurants; liquor store…).  When you realize you spend $1,200 per year on Latte’s, trust me, you lose the craving. 2) Second, we know that you need 2 appointments for every closed listing.  Find the number of listings you need to close to break even.  Then create a plan to get that many appointments.  Just focus on that one number:  Listing appointments needed…keep it simple and quit over-complicating things.
(Make every buyer you close on top of that ‘play money’.) 

Lastly, get married:
Now, there are 53 ways to generate leads in real estate.  Let’s take ONE: Your sphere of influence or ‘met’ database.  One way to look at it is: If you got married now, and money was no object, who would you invite to your wedding?  That’s who should be in your data base.  24:1 - That is how many people in your database you need to contact to get one appointment (that’s actually talk to them).  Ok, so you need 20 closings to hit your goal; that equals 40 appointments; which means 960 calls in a year (40X24).  If you have 160 people “in your wedding” that means you talk to 160 people every 2 months.  That is 80 contacts a month or 20 per week.  Can you make calls until you talk to 4 people a day in order to hit your goal for you and your family?  People you probably already like?!!!!! There may never be a better slogan than Nike’s:  “JUST DO IT.”

Welcome! 

My goalwith this blog is to give you information and insight to help you with your life and your decisions.  I have been in real estate and sales most of my professional life; so, much of what I write is related to property and investing. 

My promise is not to waster your time.  I consider myself a ’consumer advocate’, and I do all that I can to filter out erroneous or self-serving information in order to give you what I think is the truth.

My hope is to inform and entertain you at the same time; consequently, I often write in an edgy, humorous style.  I often say, “I work in sarcasm, like Michelangelo worked in oil paints”…..Consider yourself ‘warned!’ 

-R Todd Roseberry

CEO/managing broker  Keller Wiliams Realty-Intown Atlanta